Kansas City Chiefs vs. Baltimore Ravens: A Crucial Question Hangs Over This AFC Championship Game

As the Kansas City Chiefs gear up to face the Baltimore Ravens in the AFC Championship Game on Sunday, the stakes couldn’t be higher. Here’s the lowdown:

– Kickoff: 2 p.m. Central on Sunday – Location: M&T Bank Stadium in Baltimore – TV: CBS (Channel 5 in Kansas City, Channel 12 in Wichita) – Radio: WDAF (106.5 FM in Kansas City, KNSS 98.7 FM in Wichita)

– Betting Line: Ravens by 3 1/2.

GAME PREDICTION

The outcome of this game boils down to a fundamental question: How much faith do you have in Kansas City’s quarterback, Patrick Mahomes? Let’s face it; the Chiefs don’t have all the advantages they enjoyed in previous playoff rounds. They’re not playing at home in a cold environment, which had unsettled their opponents from South Florida. Moreover, they’re not up against an opponent dealing with a short week and a slew of defensive injuries, a scenario that allowed the Chiefs to exploit the Buffalo Bills’ vulnerabilities effectively.

This time around, the Chiefs have one less day to prepare compared to the Ravens, and they’re also grappling with more injuries. All-Pro guard Joe Thuney is sidelined with a pec injury, and linebacker Willie Gay’s status is questionable. Not to mention, the Ravens are a formidable team, boasting impressive rankings in DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average), particularly the highest recent-game-adjusted rating of any NFL team in 44 seasons. They top the charts in rush offense, overall defense, and pass defense. Moreover, they have the home-field advantage, which can’t be underestimated, providing a 1 1/2-to-2-point edge.

However, the spread still favors Baltimore by just 3 1/2 points, which seems puzzling. The only plausible explanation is Patrick Mahomes. If he performs as he did last week against the Bills, reaching a peak-level Hall of Famer status, the Chiefs could hold the upper hand.

Defensively, the Chiefs have occasionally shown vulnerability against the run. This could pose a challenge against the Ravens, who excel in that aspect, even without contributions from quarterback Lamar Jackson. However, Kansas City’s defensive coordinator, Steve Spagnuolo, has a knack for quick adjustments. Over their last 19 games, the Chiefs have allowed just 7 second-half points per game, instilling confidence that they can adapt to whatever creative strategies are thrown at them.

One intriguing aspect to watch, highlighted in JT O’Sullivan’s QB School video analysis of Jackson, is the Ravens quarterback’s tendency to make questionable decisions when facing blitzes. While there is some risk involved, considering Jackson’s mobility, the Chiefs have excelled in blitzing throughout the season, potentially offering a pathway to defensive success.

On the offensive front, Mahomes could benefit from a strong running game. Despite Thuney’s absence, backup Nick Allegretti, a system veteran, displayed promising blocking skills last week against the Bills. According to DVOA and Aaron Schatz, the Ravens rank first in the NFL in first-down pass defense but only 19th against the run. This might be a minor weakness for the Ravens’ defense, and the Chiefs should explore it to determine if the physical run game from last week can carry over to Sunday.

Ultimately, it comes back to Patrick Mahomes. He thrives in high-pressure situations and embraces the role of the “villain.” He boasts an 8-1-1 record against the spread as an underdog and a 7-3 straight-up record. Teammates have noted his heightened intensity in practice and games this week. In the NFL, a good offense often prevails over a good defense, with quarterback play serving as the ultimate trump card.

This game presents Mahomes with more challenges than any other this season, but betting against him seems unwise. The Ravens are the superior team, enjoying home-field advantage and featuring the likely MVP, along with rest and health at the right time. Yet, the Chiefs have Mahomes. Last week, underestimating his impact led to a mistaken prediction in favor of the Bills, something I’m not prepared to repeat.

I’m picking the Chiefs for the win and cover. In all likelihood, Mahomes will need to deliver an A-level performance for the Chiefs to advance to Super Bowl LVIII. But at this stage, who’s to say he won’t? Chiefs 28, Ravens 27.

Jesse’s pick to cover the spread: Kansas City Last game prediction: Bills 28, Chiefs 23 (Actual: Chiefs 27-24)2023 record vs. spread: 11-8

Last two seasons record vs. spread: 23-16